On 11 September 2026, the Met Office's Chief Meteorologist put a number on what forecasters had been hinting at for weeks: the odds of a wetter, windier autumn are running at one-and-a-half to two times higher than normal. Here is exactly what was said, what it does and doesn't tell us, and what to do with a warning while the ground is still dry.
Photo: Rob Wicks / Unsplash (illustrative)
Published 19 September 2026 · A RISE update · 6–8 minute read
Seasonal forecasts rarely make headlines on their own — they deal in probabilities, not promises, and most people only hear about them once the rain has already started falling sideways. This one is worth reading now, while it's still just a forecast, because of who said it and how strongly it was worded.
On 11 September 2026, the Met Office published an updated long-range outlook and its Chief Meteorologist, Ian Lisk, went on record with a direct statement: "The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Niño events." The Met Office's own outlook quantifies that likelihood: the chances of a wetter and warmer autumn are running at around one-and-a-half to two times higher than would normally be expected.
The mechanism behind the forecast is El Niño — the periodic warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific that reliably reshapes weather patterns worldwide. The Met Office describes the current event as developing at near-record strength, among the strongest El Niño events on record, with the potential to grow further before its anticipated peak this winter. Historically, strong El Niño winters correlate with warmer, wetter and stormier conditions across the UK and northern Europe during late autumn and early winter. The Met Office is careful to add the necessary caveat: El Niño is only one of several factors affecting the UK's weather, not the only one.
| What the Met Office said (11 Sept 2026) | What it means |
|---|---|
| Late September temperatures close to average, turning slightly above average into early October | No immediate autumn chill — mild conditions persist a little longer than usual |
| Increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions through autumn (1.5–2x normal odds) | More rain is more likely than not, but not guaranteed on any given day or in any given place |
| Increased likelihood of windy conditions later in the season | Wet ground plus wind raises the risk of tree and drainage-related damage alongside flooding |
| High pressure may bring a temporary settled spell toward late September | A dry-looking window doesn't cancel the wetter trend forecast for the season as a whole |
| El Niño developing at near-record strength, peaking this winter | The single biggest reason forecasters are more confident than usual in the wetter signal |
To be precise about what this outlook does and doesn't claim: the Met Office is explicit that seasonal outlooks "are designed to indicate changes in risk at a national scale rather than predict exactly when or where periods of wet, windy or stormy weather may occur." Nobody — not the Met Office, not RISE, not any forecaster working at this range — can tell you today whether your specific street floods this November. What can be said honestly is that the national odds have shifted, and the Met Office's own outlook links that shift directly to flood risk: an increased likelihood of wetter and windier than normal conditions "does come with an increased risk of associated impacts such as flooding."
A shifted probability isn't a reason for alarm, but it is a reason to move a few unglamorous jobs up your list while the weather allows it: clear gutters and gullies, check your insurance schedule actually names flood cover and a realistic excess, register for free Environment Agency flood warnings on your postcode, and photograph your home now so you have dated "before" evidence if you ever need it. None of that stops the rain. All of it changes what a wetter autumn costs you if the odds do land the wrong way.
If your property has flooded before and you want to understand exactly where you stand with your council's legal obligations under Section 19, the RISE Section 19 Case Assessment is £250, delivered to your inbox. And if water is already rising as you read this: 07391 151719. You will reach RISE directly.
Sources: Met Office, "What does the latest long-range forecast tell us and what role could El Niño play this autumn?" (metoffice.gov.uk, 11 September 2026), including on-record comment from Ian Lisk, Met Office Chief Meteorologist; Met Office 3-Month Outlook methodology notes. See also RISE's companion articles on the hottest summer on record and the Three-R winter preparation checklist.
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